IMF Lifts Global Forecast But Warns of Various Risks

Scott Morrison will attend the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington on October 13-14

"Given the significant policy uncertainty, IMF staff's macroeconomic forecast now uses a baseline assumption of unchanged policies, whereas the April 2017 WEO (World Economic Outlook) built in a fiscal stimulus from anticipated tax cuts", the Fund said in its revisions to its USA economic forecasts.

"The small downward revision for the 2018 growth forecast to 6.7 percent is in line with a steady growth path, given the likely growth outcome for 2017", IMF Resident Representative to the Philippines Yongzheng Yang told reporters in an e-mail.

The latest World Economic Outlook has upgraded its global growth projections to 3.6 per cent for this year and 3.7 per cent for next-in both cases 0.1 percentage point above our previous forecasts, and well above 2016's global growth rate of 3.2 per cent, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis.

The United States, the 19-country eurozone, Japan and China are all forecast to grow faster this year.

Egypt's consumer price inflation for the fiscal year is projected at 21.3 percent, the report showed.

Emerging market and developing economies on the other hand were still seen growing 4.6% in 2017 although in 2018 GDP was now expected to rise at a clip of 4.9%, one tenth of a point more than previously forecast.

Inflation remains muted in much of the advanced economies, and wage growth is weak.

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China edged slightly ahead to be the growth champion with a projected growth rate of 6.8%, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report.

Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist at the IMF, said the reduction in the fund's long-term outlook for the United Kingdom from an annual growth rate of 1.9 per cent to 1.7 per cent was a direct effect of leaving the EU.

Economic growth in Kenya is seen slowing to 5 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year, the International Monetary Fund said.

The report cited "notable pickups in investment, trade, and industrial production, coupled with stronger business and consumer confidence", as central to the strong global recovery.

On the plus side for Inida, the International Monetary Fund raised last year's growth rate by 0.3 percent to 7.1 percent from the 6.8 percent it had projected in April citing "strong government spending and data revisions".

Japan was also expected to grow more quickly, although it was Canada that saw the biggest mark-up, with the Fund predicting its economy would grow by 3.0% and 2.1% this year and next, respectively.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delivered an unusually upbeat assessment of the prospects for the global economy, with worldwide growth now at its strongest rate in seven years.

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